Publikationen
Forschung zu KI-Agenten, Backtesting und Prüfung von Marktprognosen sowie zur Architektur der Plattform.
Prognosen bewerten
Learn what epistemic uncertainty means in AI models, how it differs from aleatoric uncertainty, and why it matters for trustworthy, transparent AI systems.
7 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
In Wahrscheinlichkeiten denken
Understand frequentist vs Bayesian probability — two frameworks for reasoning under uncertainty, and why the difference matters in AI and markets.
8 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
Prognosen bewerten
Calibration measures whether your stated confidence matches reality. Learn what it means in forecasting, why it matters in markets, and how to improve it.
8 Min. Lesezeit10 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Learn how prediction market odds work, what they truly signal, and how to read them clearly — without mistaking implied probability for certainty.
8 Min. Lesezeit9 Abschnitte
Prognosen bewerten
Learn how to evaluate a forecasting model — from error metrics and backtesting to overfitting, calibration, and transparency. A practical framework.
8 Min. Lesezeit9 Abschnitte
In Wahrscheinlichkeiten denken
Risk and uncertainty are not the same thing. Learn the Knightian distinction, why markets conflate them, and what it means for AI-assisted decision-making.
7 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
Krypto und Märkte
Liquidity defines how easily assets trade without moving prices. Learn what market liquidity means, why it matters, and how AI is reshaping it.
8 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
How do prediction markets forecast elections — and when do they outperform traditional polls? A clear, educational breakdown for curious minds.
7 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
Prognosen bewerten
Learn how forecasters measure accuracy using MAE, RMSE, Brier scores, and calibration. A clear, practical guide for thinking critically about predictions.
7 Min. Lesezeit9 Abschnitte
Prognosen bewerten
Learn what a Brier score is, how it's calculated, and why it's the gold standard for evaluating probabilistic predictions in AI and markets.
7 Min. Lesezeit9 Abschnitte
Fallstricke von Modellen
Learn what overfitting is, why it silently breaks AI models in financial markets, and why transparency is the most honest defense against it.
7 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
In Wahrscheinlichkeiten denken
Markets generate endless data. The challenge is knowing what matters. Signal vs noise in market data — and why transparency changes everything.
8 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
