Publikationen
Forschung zu KI-Agenten, Backtesting und Prüfung von Marktprognosen sowie zur Architektur der Plattform.
Prognosemärkte
One model is a single point of failure. How a team of AI agents produces calibrated probabilities on Polymarket and Kalshi, and why every call is scored.
5 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
How Polymarket turns money into probability, why market prices are hard to beat, and how an AI forecaster uses them honestly — benchmarked and scored in public.
3 Min. Lesezeit4 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Polls, models, and prediction markets all try to call elections. Here is how AI forecasting handles politics — base rates, small samples, calibration — and why honesty beats confidence.
3 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Prediction markets turn scattered beliefs into a probability estimate. Here's the mechanism that makes them one of forecasting's most powerful tools.
7 Min. Lesezeit7 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Why the average of many independent guesses often beats the sharpest lone expert — the statistics behind the wisdom of crowds and why prediction markets exploit it.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
What is Kalshi? A plain-English guide to the CFTC-regulated event exchange, how contract prices become probabilities, and how it differs from Polymarket.
7 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Prediction market prices are surprisingly accurate — with two documented blind spots. How to read the odds, where they break, and why a losing favourite isn't proof they're wrong.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Learn what the wisdom of crowds means in forecasting, why aggregated judgment outperforms experts, and how it applies to markets and AI.
7 Min. Lesezeit7 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Learn how prediction market odds work, what they truly signal, and how to read them clearly — without mistaking implied probability for certainty.
8 Min. Lesezeit9 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
How do prediction markets forecast elections — and when do they outperform traditional polls? A clear, educational breakdown for curious minds.
7 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Implied probability converts market prices into the odds the market assigns an outcome. Learn how to read it, calculate it, and think critically.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Polymarket is a prediction market where prices reflect probabilities. Learn how it works, what you can trade on, and why the data matters.
7 Min. Lesezeit10 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Learn to read market probability using options IV, futures-implied odds, skew, and Bayesian thinking. Education for serious market participants.
8 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
