Publikationen
Forschung zu KI-Agenten, Backtesting und Prüfung von Marktprognosen sowie zur Architektur der Plattform.
Sport
Can an AI model actually beat the bookmakers and betting exchanges? Here is what the vig, the closing line, and market efficiency really mean for machine forecasting — and what a genuine edge would require.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Sport
Expected goals (xG) explained in plain English: what the number really measures, why xG isn't goals in one match, and how it feeds forecasting models.
6 Min. Lesezeit7 Abschnitte
Sport
How to run thousands of simulated tournaments to turn a single-match model into honest win probabilities — sampling, convergence, and confidence intervals.
6 Min. Lesezeit7 Abschnitte
Sport
How a double Poisson model turns attack and defence strength into expected goals, a scoreline matrix, and clean home, draw and away win probabilities.
6 Min. Lesezeit6 Abschnitte
Sport
Two forecasts for the same match rarely agree — and the disagreement is the most useful thing on the screen. How to read an AI model against a prediction market.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Sport
AI keeps promising to beat sports betting markets. What a betting exchange really is, the one man who genuinely beat the odds, why the math is brutal — and what AI actually changes.
6 Min. Lesezeit8 Abschnitte
Sport
How do AI models predict the 2026 FIFA World Cup? A clear breakdown of methodology, probability distributions, and the transparency gap in AI forecasting systems.
1 Min. Lesezeit2 Abschnitte
Sport
Discover how prediction markets aggregate dispersed knowledge around the World Cup — and the three statistical limits that make them imperfect.
7 Min. Lesezeit6 Abschnitte
Sport
AI estimates probabilities, not winners. Discover why the 48-team World Cup, injuries, and model disagreement make any forecast humbling.
7 Min. Lesezeit7 Abschnitte
