Publikationen
Forschung zu KI-Agenten, Backtesting und Prüfung von Marktprognosen sowie zur Architektur der Plattform.
Beweisbarkeit
AI can generate a confident prediction in seconds — but can it prove the prediction came first? Here is how blockchain timestamping turns unfalsifiable AI output into an auditable record.
4 Min. Lesezeit6 Abschnitte
Sport
Can an AI model actually beat the bookmakers and betting exchanges? Here is what the vig, the closing line, and market efficiency really mean for machine forecasting — and what a genuine edge would require.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Polls, models, and prediction markets all try to call elections. Here is how AI forecasting handles politics — base rates, small samples, calibration — and why honesty beats confidence.
3 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Fallstricke von Modellen
Survivorship bias is the error of studying only the winners because the losers have quietly disappeared from the data. Here is how it distorts financial results and how to guard against it.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Fallstricke von Modellen
Backtesting runs a strategy against historical data to see how it would have performed. Here is what it really measures, why a great backtest is so easy to fake, and what an honest one looks like.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
In Wahrscheinlichkeiten denken
Ignoring how often something usually happens is one of the most common forecasting mistakes. What the base rate fallacy is, the classic example, and how good forecasters avoid it.
3 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Prognosen bewerten
The Brier score grades a probability for a yes/no event. The CRPS does the same job for a full distribution over a number. Here is how it works and why it is a proper scoring rule.
3 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Beweisbarkeit
We put our forecasting where it can be independently scored: NeuPortal has entered public AI forecasting arenas, shipped an honest benchmark, and measured a real improvement.
3 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Prediction markets turn scattered beliefs into a probability estimate. Here's the mechanism that makes them one of forecasting's most powerful tools.
7 Min. Lesezeit7 Abschnitte
Prognosemärkte
Why the average of many independent guesses often beats the sharpest lone expert — the statistics behind the wisdom of crowds and why prediction markets exploit it.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
In Wahrscheinlichkeiten denken
A forecast becomes useful only when you compare its probability to a price. Here is how expected value works, why positive EV is never a promise, and the calibration it depends on.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
Fallstricke von Modellen
A model that looks spectacular on historical data is the easiest thing to build and the hardest to trust. What overfitting is, why it fools you, and the only test that cannot be gamed.
4 Min. Lesezeit5 Abschnitte
