Publications
Research on AI agents, backtesting and audits of market forecasts, and the platform's architecture.
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On the 7,048 calls that have resolved, the market scores 0.161 and our models score 0.194. The market wins. This post is about where it wins, because the answer is more specific, and more useful, than "markets are efficient".
4 min read6 sections
Other
Estimates of AI causing human extinction run from 0.38% to 16% depending on who you ask, and 63% of Americans think it could happen. Here are the three mechanisms, what the 2026 International AI Safety Report changed, and why the forecasters on both sides were no better than trend extrapolation on the questions that could actually be scored.
9 min read9 sections
Other
Nobody needs to conquer humanity. They only need to run the electricity and the internet. A thought experiment about the quietest possible takeover - and the honest reasons it may never happen.
6 min read4 sections
Other
A clip promised that by 2050 we will turn hundred-year-olds back into twenty-year-olds. I will not defend the date. I want to defend the direction - as a metaphor, a speculation, and a question worth holding honestly.
7 min read4 sections
Other
A speculative case, argued from what is actually being built. The fruit fly brain is already mapped, the mouse is underway, and 67 experts put four in ten odds on a digital mind by 2040. Where that road ends is the part nobody can prove yet - including me.
6 min read7 sections
