Publications
Research on AI agents, backtesting and audits of market forecasts, and the platform's architecture.
Sport
Can an AI model actually beat the bookmakers and betting exchanges? Here is what the vig, the closing line, and market efficiency really mean for machine forecasting — and what a genuine edge would require.
4 min read5 sections
Sport
Expected goals (xG) explained in plain English: what the number really measures, why xG isn't goals in one match, and how it feeds forecasting models.
6 min read7 sections
Sport
How to run thousands of simulated tournaments to turn a single-match model into honest win probabilities — sampling, convergence, and confidence intervals.
6 min read7 sections
Sport
How a double Poisson model turns attack and defence strength into expected goals, a scoreline matrix, and clean home, draw and away win probabilities.
6 min read6 sections
Sport
Two forecasts for the same match rarely agree — and the disagreement is the most useful thing on the screen. How to read an AI model against a prediction market.
4 min read5 sections
Sport
AI keeps promising to beat sports betting markets. What a betting exchange really is, the one man who genuinely beat the odds, why the math is brutal — and what AI actually changes.
6 min read8 sections
Sport
How do AI models predict the 2026 FIFA World Cup? A clear breakdown of methodology, probability distributions, and the transparency gap in AI forecasting systems.
1 min read2 sections
Sport
Discover how prediction markets aggregate dispersed knowledge around the World Cup — and the three statistical limits that make them imperfect.
7 min read6 sections
Sport
AI estimates probabilities, not winners. Discover why the 48-team World Cup, injuries, and model disagreement make any forecast humbling.
7 min read7 sections
