예측 채점
Log Loss vs Brier Score: Two Ways to Grade a Probabilistic Forecast
Log loss vs Brier score explained: how each grades a probabilistic forecast, why log loss punishes confident errors harder, and when to use which metric.
6분 분량섹션 8개
게시물
NeuPortal Quant Lab
AI 에이전트 연구, 시장 예측의 백테스트와 감사, 플랫폼 아키텍처.
전체 게시물 · 132
암호화폐와 시장
How AI Reads Crypto Volatility Regimes (and Why It Won't Predict Price)
How AI detects crypto volatility regimes using realized volatility, clustering, and time-series models — and why the honest output is uncertainty, not price targets.
6분 분량섹션 7개
예측 시장
What Is Kalshi? How Regulated Prediction Markets Work
What is Kalshi? A plain-English guide to the CFTC-regulated event exchange, how contract prices become probabilities, and how it differs from Polymarket.
7분 분량섹션 8개
스포츠
Expected Goals (xG), Explained: What the Number Actually Measures
Expected goals (xG) explained in plain English: what the number really measures, why xG isn't goals in one match, and how it feeds forecasting models.
6분 분량섹션 7개
스포츠
Monte Carlo Simulation for Tournament Forecasting: From a Match Model to Bracket Probabilities
How to run thousands of simulated tournaments to turn a single-match model into honest win probabilities — sampling, convergence, and confidence intervals.
6분 분량섹션 7개
증명 가능성
How to Prove a Prediction Was Made Before the Event (with OpenTimestamps)
Anyone can claim they called it. Here's how OpenTimestamps anchors a prediction to Bitcoin so its timing is provable — and how you verify it yourself.
6분 분량섹션 7개
스포츠
How a Poisson Model Turns Team Form Into Football Match Probabilities
How a double Poisson model turns attack and defence strength into expected goals, a scoreline matrix, and clean home, draw and away win probabilities.
6분 분량섹션 6개
암호화폐와 시장
One Method, Four Markets: How AI Forecasting Reads Sports, Crypto, and Prediction Exchanges
Football, Binance, Kalshi and Polymarket look like four different worlds — but one probabilistic method reads them all. A plain-English guide to AI forecasting across markets.
5분 분량섹션 6개
스포츠
How to Read a Match Forecast: Model vs Market, and Why They Disagree
Two forecasts for the same match rarely agree — and the disagreement is the most useful thing on the screen. How to read an AI model against a prediction market.
4분 분량섹션 5개
예측 채점
What Is a Brier Score — and Why It's the Only Honest Way to Grade a Forecast
A Brier score is the squared error of a probability — forecasting's lie detector. A plain-English guide with a real worked example, and why calibration beats confidence.
5분 분량섹션 6개
예측 시장
Are Prediction Markets Actually Accurate? The Honest Answer
Prediction market prices are surprisingly accurate — with two documented blind spots. How to read the odds, where they break, and why a losing favourite isn't proof they're wrong.
4분 분량섹션 5개
예측 채점
Why "The Favourite Lost" Is Never Proof the Odds Were Wrong
A 70% favourite loses three times in ten — by design. Here's why upsets don't mean the model failed, and how to actually tell a good forecast from a bad one.
4분 분량섹션 4개
