予測市場
Beyond the Single-Model Prophet: Reading Polymarket With a Team of AI Agents
One model is a single point of failure. How a team of AI agents produces calibrated probabilities on Polymarket and Kalshi, and why every call is scored.
読了時間 5分5セクション
記事
NeuPortal Quant Lab
AIエージェントの研究、市場予測のバックテストと監査、プラットフォームのアーキテクチャ。
予測市場 · 17
予測市場
AI vs Polymarket: What Prediction-Market Prices Really Tell You
How Polymarket turns money into probability, why market prices are hard to beat, and how an AI forecaster uses them honestly — benchmarked and scored in public.
読了時間 3分4セクション
予測市場
Can AI Forecast Elections? Political Prediction, Explained
Polls, models, and prediction markets all try to call elections. Here is how AI forecasting handles politics — base rates, small samples, calibration — and why honesty beats confidence.
読了時間 3分5セクション
予測市場
How Prediction Markets Aggregate Information
Prediction markets turn scattered beliefs into a probability estimate. Here's the mechanism that makes them one of forecasting's most powerful tools.
読了時間 7分7セクション
予測市場
The Wisdom of Crowds: Why Aggregated Forecasts Beat Lone Experts
Why the average of many independent guesses often beats the sharpest lone expert — the statistics behind the wisdom of crowds and why prediction markets exploit it.
読了時間 4分5セクション
予測市場
What Is Kalshi? How Regulated Prediction Markets Work
What is Kalshi? A plain-English guide to the CFTC-regulated event exchange, how contract prices become probabilities, and how it differs from Polymarket.
読了時間 7分8セクション
予測市場
Are Prediction Markets Actually Accurate? The Honest Answer
Prediction market prices are surprisingly accurate — with two documented blind spots. How to read the odds, where they break, and why a losing favourite isn't proof they're wrong.
読了時間 4分5セクション
予測市場
The Wisdom of Crowds in Forecasting: What It Is and Why It Matters
Learn what the wisdom of crowds means in forecasting, why aggregated judgment outperforms experts, and how it applies to markets and AI.
読了時間 7分7セクション
予測市場
How to Interpret Prediction Market Odds: A Clear-Headed Guide
Learn how prediction market odds work, what they truly signal, and how to read them clearly — without mistaking implied probability for certainty.
読了時間 8分9セクション
予測市場
Prediction Markets and Elections: What the Crowd Knows That Polls Don't
How do prediction markets forecast elections — and when do they outperform traditional polls? A clear, educational breakdown for curious minds.
読了時間 7分8セクション
予測市場
What Is Implied Probability? A Clear Guide for Market Thinkers
Implied probability converts market prices into the odds the market assigns an outcome. Learn how to read it, calculate it, and think critically.
読了時間 4分5セクション
予測市場
What Is Polymarket? A Clear Guide to Prediction Markets and How They Work
Polymarket is a prediction market where prices reflect probabilities. Learn how it works, what you can trade on, and why the data matters.
読了時間 7分10セクション
予測市場
How to Read Market Probability: A Framework for Thinking in Odds
Learn to read market probability using options IV, futures-implied odds, skew, and Bayesian thinking. Education for serious market participants.
読了時間 8分8セクション
