文章
关于 AI 智能体、市场预测回测与审计以及平台架构的研究。
模型陷阱
Thinkingbox runs 507 stateful business workflows past AI agents 20 times each and reports pass^20, not just pass@1. The strongest model solves 66.50% on one attempt and 47.53% on all twenty; another posts 89.35% pass@20 and 7.50% pass^20. What that gap means for agents running unattended, why the attempts are not coin flips, and how to measure your own.
阅读约 11 分钟9 个章节
模型陷阱
Slide a window across price history and you get thousands of samples. Almost none of them are independent. Here is the arithmetic, measured on real Binance history, and what it means for every confidence interval you have ever published.
阅读约 7 分钟7 个章节
模型陷阱
Regime shift is the most common way machine learning fails in production, and backtests average it away. A worked example with real numbers from our own board, and four habits that catch it before the results do.
阅读约 5 分钟6 个章节
模型陷阱
Survivorship bias is the error of studying only the winners because the losers have quietly disappeared from the data. Here is how it distorts financial results and how to guard against it.
阅读约 4 分钟5 个章节
模型陷阱
Backtesting runs a strategy against historical data to see how it would have performed. Here is what it really measures, why a great backtest is so easy to fake, and what an honest one looks like.
阅读约 4 分钟5 个章节
模型陷阱
A model that looks spectacular on historical data is the easiest thing to build and the hardest to trust. What overfitting is, why it fools you, and the only test that cannot be gamed.
阅读约 4 分钟5 个章节
模型陷阱
Learn how AI models identify unusual patterns in market data — from statistical baselines to deep learning. Education, not trading advice.
阅读约 7 分钟7 个章节
模型陷阱
Learn the key warning signs of overfitted financial models, the tests that expose them, and why transparency in any AI-driven market tool is non-negotiable.
阅读约 7 分钟7 个章节
模型陷阱
Learn what explainable AI means in finance: how XAI works, why transparency in algorithms matters, and what it changes for market participants.
阅读约 7 分钟7 个章节
模型陷阱
Data leakage in ML quietly inflates accuracy and destroys real-world performance. Learn what it is, why it happens, and how to detect and prevent it.
阅读约 7 分钟8 个章节
模型陷阱
Learn what a confusion matrix is, how to read one, and why it matters more than accuracy alone when evaluating machine learning models.
阅读约 6 分钟8 个章节
模型陷阱
Learn what feature importance means in AI trading models, why it matters for transparency, and how to interpret it without being a data scientist.
阅读约 8 分钟8 个章节
模型陷阱
A technical breakdown of how modern AI models handle financial time series — from raw price feeds to pattern recognition, uncertainty, and transparency.
阅读约 8 分钟9 个章节
