文章
关于 AI 智能体、市场预测回测与审计以及平台架构的研究。
可证明性
AI can generate a confident prediction in seconds — but can it prove the prediction came first? Here is how blockchain timestamping turns unfalsifiable AI output into an auditable record.
阅读约 4 分钟6 个章节
体育
Can an AI model actually beat the bookmakers and betting exchanges? Here is what the vig, the closing line, and market efficiency really mean for machine forecasting — and what a genuine edge would require.
阅读约 4 分钟5 个章节
预测市场
Polls, models, and prediction markets all try to call elections. Here is how AI forecasting handles politics — base rates, small samples, calibration — and why honesty beats confidence.
阅读约 3 分钟5 个章节
模型陷阱
Survivorship bias is the error of studying only the winners because the losers have quietly disappeared from the data. Here is how it distorts financial results and how to guard against it.
阅读约 4 分钟5 个章节
模型陷阱
Backtesting runs a strategy against historical data to see how it would have performed. Here is what it really measures, why a great backtest is so easy to fake, and what an honest one looks like.
阅读约 4 分钟5 个章节
概率思维
Ignoring how often something usually happens is one of the most common forecasting mistakes. What the base rate fallacy is, the classic example, and how good forecasters avoid it.
阅读约 3 分钟5 个章节
预测评分
The Brier score grades a probability for a yes/no event. The CRPS does the same job for a full distribution over a number. Here is how it works and why it is a proper scoring rule.
阅读约 3 分钟5 个章节
可证明性
We put our forecasting where it can be independently scored: NeuPortal has entered public AI forecasting arenas, shipped an honest benchmark, and measured a real improvement.
阅读约 3 分钟5 个章节
预测市场
Prediction markets turn scattered beliefs into a probability estimate. Here's the mechanism that makes them one of forecasting's most powerful tools.
阅读约 7 分钟7 个章节
预测市场
Why the average of many independent guesses often beats the sharpest lone expert — the statistics behind the wisdom of crowds and why prediction markets exploit it.
阅读约 4 分钟5 个章节
概率思维
A forecast becomes useful only when you compare its probability to a price. Here is how expected value works, why positive EV is never a promise, and the calibration it depends on.
阅读约 4 分钟5 个章节
模型陷阱
A model that looks spectacular on historical data is the easiest thing to build and the hardest to trust. What overfitting is, why it fools you, and the only test that cannot be gamed.
阅读约 4 分钟5 个章节
