Ấn phẩm
Nghiên cứu về tác nhân AI, kiểm thử lịch sử và kiểm tra dự báo thị trường, và kiến trúc nền tảng.
Khả năng chứng minh
AI can generate a confident prediction in seconds — but can it prove the prediction came first? Here is how blockchain timestamping turns unfalsifiable AI output into an auditable record.
4 phút đọc6 phần
Thể thao
Can an AI model actually beat the bookmakers and betting exchanges? Here is what the vig, the closing line, and market efficiency really mean for machine forecasting — and what a genuine edge would require.
4 phút đọc5 phần
Thị trường dự đoán
Polls, models, and prediction markets all try to call elections. Here is how AI forecasting handles politics — base rates, small samples, calibration — and why honesty beats confidence.
3 phút đọc5 phần
Cạm bẫy của mô hình
Survivorship bias is the error of studying only the winners because the losers have quietly disappeared from the data. Here is how it distorts financial results and how to guard against it.
4 phút đọc5 phần
Cạm bẫy của mô hình
Backtesting runs a strategy against historical data to see how it would have performed. Here is what it really measures, why a great backtest is so easy to fake, and what an honest one looks like.
4 phút đọc5 phần
Tư duy theo xác suất
Ignoring how often something usually happens is one of the most common forecasting mistakes. What the base rate fallacy is, the classic example, and how good forecasters avoid it.
3 phút đọc5 phần
Chấm điểm dự báo
The Brier score grades a probability for a yes/no event. The CRPS does the same job for a full distribution over a number. Here is how it works and why it is a proper scoring rule.
3 phút đọc5 phần
Khả năng chứng minh
We put our forecasting where it can be independently scored: NeuPortal has entered public AI forecasting arenas, shipped an honest benchmark, and measured a real improvement.
3 phút đọc5 phần
Thị trường dự đoán
Prediction markets turn scattered beliefs into a probability estimate. Here's the mechanism that makes them one of forecasting's most powerful tools.
7 phút đọc7 phần
Thị trường dự đoán
Why the average of many independent guesses often beats the sharpest lone expert — the statistics behind the wisdom of crowds and why prediction markets exploit it.
4 phút đọc5 phần
Tư duy theo xác suất
A forecast becomes useful only when you compare its probability to a price. Here is how expected value works, why positive EV is never a promise, and the calibration it depends on.
4 phút đọc5 phần
Cạm bẫy của mô hình
A model that looks spectacular on historical data is the easiest thing to build and the hardest to trust. What overfitting is, why it fools you, and the only test that cannot be gamed.
4 phút đọc5 phần
