Publicações
Investigação sobre agentes de IA, backtesting e auditorias de previsões de mercado, e a arquitetura da plataforma.
Mercados de previsões
One model is a single point of failure. How a team of AI agents produces calibrated probabilities on Polymarket and Kalshi, and why every call is scored.
5 min de leitura5 secções
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How Polymarket turns money into probability, why market prices are hard to beat, and how an AI forecaster uses them honestly — benchmarked and scored in public.
3 min de leitura4 secções
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Polls, models, and prediction markets all try to call elections. Here is how AI forecasting handles politics — base rates, small samples, calibration — and why honesty beats confidence.
3 min de leitura5 secções
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Prediction markets turn scattered beliefs into a probability estimate. Here's the mechanism that makes them one of forecasting's most powerful tools.
7 min de leitura7 secções
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Why the average of many independent guesses often beats the sharpest lone expert — the statistics behind the wisdom of crowds and why prediction markets exploit it.
4 min de leitura5 secções
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What is Kalshi? A plain-English guide to the CFTC-regulated event exchange, how contract prices become probabilities, and how it differs from Polymarket.
7 min de leitura8 secções
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Prediction market prices are surprisingly accurate — with two documented blind spots. How to read the odds, where they break, and why a losing favourite isn't proof they're wrong.
4 min de leitura5 secções
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Learn what the wisdom of crowds means in forecasting, why aggregated judgment outperforms experts, and how it applies to markets and AI.
7 min de leitura7 secções
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Learn how prediction market odds work, what they truly signal, and how to read them clearly — without mistaking implied probability for certainty.
8 min de leitura9 secções
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How do prediction markets forecast elections — and when do they outperform traditional polls? A clear, educational breakdown for curious minds.
7 min de leitura8 secções
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Implied probability converts market prices into the odds the market assigns an outcome. Learn how to read it, calculate it, and think critically.
4 min de leitura5 secções
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Polymarket is a prediction market where prices reflect probabilities. Learn how it works, what you can trade on, and why the data matters.
7 min de leitura10 secções
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Learn to read market probability using options IV, futures-implied odds, skew, and Bayesian thinking. Education for serious market participants.
8 min de leitura8 secções
