Publicações
Investigação sobre agentes de IA, backtesting e auditorias de previsões de mercado, e a arquitetura da plataforma.
Comprovabilidade
AI can generate a confident prediction in seconds — but can it prove the prediction came first? Here is how blockchain timestamping turns unfalsifiable AI output into an auditable record.
4 min de leitura6 secções
Desporto
Can an AI model actually beat the bookmakers and betting exchanges? Here is what the vig, the closing line, and market efficiency really mean for machine forecasting — and what a genuine edge would require.
4 min de leitura5 secções
Mercados de previsões
Polls, models, and prediction markets all try to call elections. Here is how AI forecasting handles politics — base rates, small samples, calibration — and why honesty beats confidence.
3 min de leitura5 secções
Armadilhas dos modelos
Survivorship bias is the error of studying only the winners because the losers have quietly disappeared from the data. Here is how it distorts financial results and how to guard against it.
4 min de leitura5 secções
Armadilhas dos modelos
Backtesting runs a strategy against historical data to see how it would have performed. Here is what it really measures, why a great backtest is so easy to fake, and what an honest one looks like.
4 min de leitura5 secções
Pensar em probabilidades
Ignoring how often something usually happens is one of the most common forecasting mistakes. What the base rate fallacy is, the classic example, and how good forecasters avoid it.
3 min de leitura5 secções
Avaliação de previsões
The Brier score grades a probability for a yes/no event. The CRPS does the same job for a full distribution over a number. Here is how it works and why it is a proper scoring rule.
3 min de leitura5 secções
Comprovabilidade
We put our forecasting where it can be independently scored: NeuPortal has entered public AI forecasting arenas, shipped an honest benchmark, and measured a real improvement.
3 min de leitura5 secções
Mercados de previsões
Prediction markets turn scattered beliefs into a probability estimate. Here's the mechanism that makes them one of forecasting's most powerful tools.
7 min de leitura7 secções
Mercados de previsões
Why the average of many independent guesses often beats the sharpest lone expert — the statistics behind the wisdom of crowds and why prediction markets exploit it.
4 min de leitura5 secções
Pensar em probabilidades
A forecast becomes useful only when you compare its probability to a price. Here is how expected value works, why positive EV is never a promise, and the calibration it depends on.
4 min de leitura5 secções
Armadilhas dos modelos
A model that looks spectacular on historical data is the easiest thing to build and the hardest to trust. What overfitting is, why it fools you, and the only test that cannot be gamed.
4 min de leitura5 secções
