Pubblicazioni
Ricerche su agenti IA, backtest e audit delle previsioni di mercato, e sull’architettura della piattaforma.
Valutare le previsioni
The instinct to grade a forecast by whether it came true is the wrong test. Calibration - when a model says 70% it happens about 70% of the time - is the property that separates a real forecaster from a confident guesser, and it is measurable.
7 min di lettura7 sezioni
Valutare le previsioni
The Brier score grades a probability for a yes/no event. The CRPS does the same job for a full distribution over a number. Here is how it works and why it is a proper scoring rule.
3 min di lettura5 sezioni
Valutare le previsioni
Log loss vs Brier score explained: how each grades a probabilistic forecast, why log loss punishes confident errors harder, and when to use which metric.
6 min di lettura8 sezioni
Valutare le previsioni
A Brier score is the squared error of a probability — forecasting's lie detector. A plain-English guide with a real worked example, and why calibration beats confidence.
5 min di lettura6 sezioni
Valutare le previsioni
A 70% favourite loses three times in ten — by design. Here's why upsets don't mean the model failed, and how to actually tell a good forecast from a bad one.
4 min di lettura4 sezioni
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A rigorous framework for comparing forecasting models without bias — covering evaluation protocols, metrics, baselines, and statistical significance tests.
7 min di lettura9 sezioni
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Learn how to measure and interpret forecast uncertainty using confidence intervals, scenario analysis, calibration scoring, and AI-driven ensemble methods.
7 min di lettura7 sezioni
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Learn what epistemic uncertainty means in AI models, how it differs from aleatoric uncertainty, and why it matters for trustworthy, transparent AI systems.
7 min di lettura8 sezioni
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Calibration measures whether your stated confidence matches reality. Learn what it means in forecasting, why it matters in markets, and how to improve it.
8 min di lettura10 sezioni
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Learn how to evaluate a forecasting model — from error metrics and backtesting to overfitting, calibration, and transparency. A practical framework.
8 min di lettura9 sezioni
Valutare le previsioni
Learn how forecasters measure accuracy using MAE, RMSE, Brier scores, and calibration. A clear, practical guide for thinking critically about predictions.
7 min di lettura9 sezioni
Valutare le previsioni
Learn what a Brier score is, how it's calculated, and why it's the gold standard for evaluating probabilistic predictions in AI and markets.
7 min di lettura9 sezioni
Valutare le previsioni
Learn what confidence intervals mean in forecasting, why they matter in financial markets, and how understanding uncertainty makes you a sharper analyst.
1 min di lettura1 sezione
