預測評分
Log Loss vs Brier Score: Two Ways to Grade a Probabilistic Forecast
Log loss vs Brier score explained: how each grades a probabilistic forecast, why log loss punishes confident errors harder, and when to use which metric.
閱讀時間 6 分鐘8 個章節
文章
NeuPortal 量化實驗室
關於 AI 代理、回測與市場預測稽核，以及平台架構的研究。
所有發表 · 132
加密貨幣與市場
How AI Reads Crypto Volatility Regimes (and Why It Won't Predict Price)
How AI detects crypto volatility regimes using realized volatility, clustering, and time-series models — and why the honest output is uncertainty, not price targets.
閱讀時間 6 分鐘7 個章節
預測市場
What Is Kalshi? How Regulated Prediction Markets Work
What is Kalshi? A plain-English guide to the CFTC-regulated event exchange, how contract prices become probabilities, and how it differs from Polymarket.
閱讀時間 7 分鐘8 個章節
體育
Expected Goals (xG), Explained: What the Number Actually Measures
Expected goals (xG) explained in plain English: what the number really measures, why xG isn't goals in one match, and how it feeds forecasting models.
閱讀時間 6 分鐘7 個章節
體育
Monte Carlo Simulation for Tournament Forecasting: From a Match Model to Bracket Probabilities
How to run thousands of simulated tournaments to turn a single-match model into honest win probabilities — sampling, convergence, and confidence intervals.
閱讀時間 6 分鐘7 個章節
可證明性
How to Prove a Prediction Was Made Before the Event (with OpenTimestamps)
Anyone can claim they called it. Here's how OpenTimestamps anchors a prediction to Bitcoin so its timing is provable — and how you verify it yourself.
閱讀時間 6 分鐘7 個章節
體育
How a Poisson Model Turns Team Form Into Football Match Probabilities
How a double Poisson model turns attack and defence strength into expected goals, a scoreline matrix, and clean home, draw and away win probabilities.
閱讀時間 6 分鐘6 個章節
加密貨幣與市場
One Method, Four Markets: How AI Forecasting Reads Sports, Crypto, and Prediction Exchanges
Football, Binance, Kalshi and Polymarket look like four different worlds — but one probabilistic method reads them all. A plain-English guide to AI forecasting across markets.
閱讀時間 5 分鐘6 個章節
體育
How to Read a Match Forecast: Model vs Market, and Why They Disagree
Two forecasts for the same match rarely agree — and the disagreement is the most useful thing on the screen. How to read an AI model against a prediction market.
閱讀時間 4 分鐘5 個章節
預測評分
What Is a Brier Score — and Why It's the Only Honest Way to Grade a Forecast
A Brier score is the squared error of a probability — forecasting's lie detector. A plain-English guide with a real worked example, and why calibration beats confidence.
閱讀時間 5 分鐘6 個章節
預測市場
Are Prediction Markets Actually Accurate? The Honest Answer
Prediction market prices are surprisingly accurate — with two documented blind spots. How to read the odds, where they break, and why a losing favourite isn't proof they're wrong.
閱讀時間 4 分鐘5 個章節
預測評分
Why "The Favourite Lost" Is Never Proof the Odds Were Wrong
A 70% favourite loses three times in ten — by design. Here's why upsets don't mean the model failed, and how to actually tell a good forecast from a bad one.
閱讀時間 4 分鐘4 個章節
