ការបោះពុម្ពផ្សាយ
ការស្រាវជ្រាវអំពីភ្នាក់ងារ AI ការសាកល្បងលើទិន្នន័យប្រវត្តិ និងសវនកម្មការព្យាករណ៍ទីផ្សារ និងស្ថាបត្យកម្មរបស់វេទិកា។
ភាពអាចបញ្ជាក់បាន
AI can generate a confident prediction in seconds — but can it prove the prediction came first? Here is how blockchain timestamping turns unfalsifiable AI output into an auditable record.
អាន 4 នាទី6 ផ្នែក
កីឡា
Can an AI model actually beat the bookmakers and betting exchanges? Here is what the vig, the closing line, and market efficiency really mean for machine forecasting — and what a genuine edge would require.
អាន 4 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
ទីផ្សារព្យាករណ៍
Polls, models, and prediction markets all try to call elections. Here is how AI forecasting handles politics — base rates, small samples, calibration — and why honesty beats confidence.
អាន 3 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
អន្ទាក់នៃគំរូ
Survivorship bias is the error of studying only the winners because the losers have quietly disappeared from the data. Here is how it distorts financial results and how to guard against it.
អាន 4 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
អន្ទាក់នៃគំរូ
Backtesting runs a strategy against historical data to see how it would have performed. Here is what it really measures, why a great backtest is so easy to fake, and what an honest one looks like.
អាន 4 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
ការគិតតាមប្រូបាប៊ីលីតេ
Ignoring how often something usually happens is one of the most common forecasting mistakes. What the base rate fallacy is, the classic example, and how good forecasters avoid it.
អាន 3 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
ការដាក់ពិន្ទុការព្យាករណ៍
The Brier score grades a probability for a yes/no event. The CRPS does the same job for a full distribution over a number. Here is how it works and why it is a proper scoring rule.
អាន 3 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
ភាពអាចបញ្ជាក់បាន
We put our forecasting where it can be independently scored: NeuPortal has entered public AI forecasting arenas, shipped an honest benchmark, and measured a real improvement.
អាន 3 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
ទីផ្សារព្យាករណ៍
Prediction markets turn scattered beliefs into a probability estimate. Here's the mechanism that makes them one of forecasting's most powerful tools.
អាន 7 នាទី7 ផ្នែក
ទីផ្សារព្យាករណ៍
Why the average of many independent guesses often beats the sharpest lone expert — the statistics behind the wisdom of crowds and why prediction markets exploit it.
អាន 4 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
ការគិតតាមប្រូបាប៊ីលីតេ
A forecast becomes useful only when you compare its probability to a price. Here is how expected value works, why positive EV is never a promise, and the calibration it depends on.
អាន 4 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
អន្ទាក់នៃគំរូ
A model that looks spectacular on historical data is the easiest thing to build and the hardest to trust. What overfitting is, why it fools you, and the only test that cannot be gamed.
អាន 4 នាទី5 ផ្នែក
