Publications
Recherches sur les agents IA, backtests et audits de prévisions de marché, et architecture de la plateforme.
Évaluation des prévisions
Learn what epistemic uncertainty means in AI models, how it differs from aleatoric uncertainty, and why it matters for trustworthy, transparent AI systems.
7 min de lecture8 sections
Raisonner en probabilités
Understand frequentist vs Bayesian probability — two frameworks for reasoning under uncertainty, and why the difference matters in AI and markets.
8 min de lecture8 sections
Évaluation des prévisions
Calibration measures whether your stated confidence matches reality. Learn what it means in forecasting, why it matters in markets, and how to improve it.
8 min de lecture10 sections
Marchés prédictifs
Learn how prediction market odds work, what they truly signal, and how to read them clearly — without mistaking implied probability for certainty.
8 min de lecture9 sections
Évaluation des prévisions
Learn how to evaluate a forecasting model — from error metrics and backtesting to overfitting, calibration, and transparency. A practical framework.
8 min de lecture9 sections
Raisonner en probabilités
Risk and uncertainty are not the same thing. Learn the Knightian distinction, why markets conflate them, and what it means for AI-assisted decision-making.
7 min de lecture8 sections
Crypto et marchés
Liquidity defines how easily assets trade without moving prices. Learn what market liquidity means, why it matters, and how AI is reshaping it.
8 min de lecture8 sections
Marchés prédictifs
How do prediction markets forecast elections — and when do they outperform traditional polls? A clear, educational breakdown for curious minds.
7 min de lecture8 sections
Évaluation des prévisions
Learn how forecasters measure accuracy using MAE, RMSE, Brier scores, and calibration. A clear, practical guide for thinking critically about predictions.
7 min de lecture9 sections
Évaluation des prévisions
Learn what a Brier score is, how it's calculated, and why it's the gold standard for evaluating probabilistic predictions in AI and markets.
7 min de lecture9 sections
Pièges des modèles
Learn what overfitting is, why it silently breaks AI models in financial markets, and why transparency is the most honest defense against it.
7 min de lecture8 sections
Raisonner en probabilités
Markets generate endless data. The challenge is knowing what matters. Signal vs noise in market data — and why transparency changes everything.
8 min de lecture8 sections
