المنشورات
أبحاث حول وكلاء الذكاء الاصطناعي، والاختبار الرجعي وتدقيق توقعات السوق، وبنية المنصة.
قابلية الإثبات
AI can generate a confident prediction in seconds — but can it prove the prediction came first? Here is how blockchain timestamping turns unfalsifiable AI output into an auditable record.
قراءة في 4 دقيقة6 أقسام
الرياضة
Can an AI model actually beat the bookmakers and betting exchanges? Here is what the vig, the closing line, and market efficiency really mean for machine forecasting — and what a genuine edge would require.
قراءة في 4 دقيقة5 أقسام
أسواق التنبؤات
Polls, models, and prediction markets all try to call elections. Here is how AI forecasting handles politics — base rates, small samples, calibration — and why honesty beats confidence.
قراءة في 3 دقيقة5 أقسام
مزالق النماذج
Survivorship bias is the error of studying only the winners because the losers have quietly disappeared from the data. Here is how it distorts financial results and how to guard against it.
قراءة في 4 دقيقة5 أقسام
مزالق النماذج
Backtesting runs a strategy against historical data to see how it would have performed. Here is what it really measures, why a great backtest is so easy to fake, and what an honest one looks like.
قراءة في 4 دقيقة5 أقسام
التفكير بالاحتمالات
Ignoring how often something usually happens is one of the most common forecasting mistakes. What the base rate fallacy is, the classic example, and how good forecasters avoid it.
قراءة في 3 دقيقة5 أقسام
تقييم التوقعات
The Brier score grades a probability for a yes/no event. The CRPS does the same job for a full distribution over a number. Here is how it works and why it is a proper scoring rule.
قراءة في 3 دقيقة5 أقسام
قابلية الإثبات
We put our forecasting where it can be independently scored: NeuPortal has entered public AI forecasting arenas, shipped an honest benchmark, and measured a real improvement.
قراءة في 3 دقيقة5 أقسام
أسواق التنبؤات
Prediction markets turn scattered beliefs into a probability estimate. Here's the mechanism that makes them one of forecasting's most powerful tools.
قراءة في 7 دقيقة7 أقسام
أسواق التنبؤات
Why the average of many independent guesses often beats the sharpest lone expert — the statistics behind the wisdom of crowds and why prediction markets exploit it.
قراءة في 4 دقيقة5 أقسام
التفكير بالاحتمالات
A forecast becomes useful only when you compare its probability to a price. Here is how expected value works, why positive EV is never a promise, and the calibration it depends on.
قراءة في 4 دقيقة5 أقسام
مزالق النماذج
A model that looks spectacular on historical data is the easiest thing to build and the hardest to trust. What overfitting is, why it fools you, and the only test that cannot be gamed.
قراءة في 4 دقيقة5 أقسام
